Programming and and analysis

Bayesian probability and real life decision making

A nice article on Bayesian approaches to decision making in the face of risk, including whether to get a flu jab. It mentions the famous Monty Hall (three door) problem which is the prototypical example of Bayesian analysis giving an answer that is, to some, counter-intuitive. The heart of this approach is to ‘update your probabilities in light of new information’.