In the Australian Financial Review, 13th April 2021, Sam Lovick asks whether possible delays in COVID-19 vaccination resulting from restricted use of the AstraZeneca Oxford vaccine to adults over 50 are more costly than the adverse events that might be avoided. In any pandemic, time to achieve herd immunity is critical in reducing infections, reducimg […]
In a simulation study using a dynamic disease model for the UK, Sam Lovick Consulting with colleagues, Van Hung Nguyen and Allen Bollands, show the value of early intervention in an influenza pandemic using a partially-matched vaccine. The simulation assumed that the partially-matched vaccines is less effective at reducing transmission than a matched vaccine that […]
As some of you may know, I have been modelling the COVID-19 pandemic in a number of countries using a compartmental disease model. The model is written in the R language. R itself is a single-threaded language which means it does not in its native form make use of more than one core on modern […]
Genetic Technologies is developing a Polygenic Risk Score (PRS) test for COVID-19 which may enable an assessment of risk of an individual developing a serious disease should they contract the virus. The test is intended to predict ‘disease severity’ using a combination of genetic and clinical information (here). Modelling done by Sam Lovick Consulting using […]
Published in the Australian Financial Review, Dr Brian McNamee AO (writing in his personal capacity) and Sam Lovick question whether Premier Andrews’ roadmap to recovery is the right path. We conclude that Daniel Andrews should move to reduce lock down measures in regional Victoria immediately and should move to do so more quickly in Melbourne. The […]
AEMO appointed Sam Lovick from Sam Lovick Consulting as the independent expert to determine compensation for Package 2 of additional compensation claims for directions in South Australia between 31 January and 09 February 2020. The public report on the draft determinations can be found here. Our commentary can be found here. The report highlights some of […]
In a recent article published in the Financial Review, Sam Lovick reiterates that suppression is the best way to balance the health and economic costs of the COVID-19 pandemic. But fearful governments find themselves choosing an elimination strategy anyway.
In a recent article published in the Financial Review, Sam Lovick reviews whether there will be a second wave in Australia. He concludes not as Australia will strive to keep infections low by keeping its borders low. He sets out his concern that this will be much more costly than recent analysis by the OECD […]
AEMO appointed Sam Lovick from Sam Lovick Consulting as the independent expert to determine compensation for Package 2 of additional compensation claims for directions in South Australia between 31 January and 09 February 2020. The public report on the draft determinations can be found here.
In a recent article published in the Financial Review, Sam Lovick reviews whether the costs and benefits of Australia’s current approach to the COVID-19 pandemic stack up. This longer paper provides more information on the disease modelling that we used to understand what the best mode of intervention in the pandemic might be.